Global Analysis

Global Seismic Comparison

Multi-band risk profile comparison of 92 regions — across four magnitude bands from M4–5 to M7+

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Monitored Regions

Active Fault Systems

—

Highest Risk Region

~5.2M

Monitored Area km²

01Comparative Analysis

Eren Bostan·[TAL-701]add per-band region bar chart

All Regions Comparison

Risk score (%) across 4 magnitude bands per region

M4–5 M5–6 M6–7 M7+

02Region Details

Mert Yılmaz·[TAL-702]render per-region risk cards

Region Cards

🇹🇷

İstanbul

North Anatolian Fault (NAF)

—

M4–5 —

M5–6 —

M6–7 —

M7+ —

Marmara segment — stress accumulation ongoing since ~1766

🇹🇷

Maraş

East Anatolian Fault (EAF)

—

M4–5 —

M5–6 —

M6–7 —

M7+ —

Post-2023 Kahramanmaraş sequence: aftershock and stress reloading regime

🇹🇷

Yedisu

NAF Eastern Terminus

—

M4–5 —

M5–6 —

M6–7 —

M7+ —

Bingöl-Erzincan segment — long-unruptured seismic gap

🇹🇷

İzmir

Aegean Extensional Tectonics

—

M4–5 —

M5–6 —

M6–7 —

M7+ —

2020 M7.0 Samos-İzmir earthquake reference point; shallow-focus normal faults

🇯🇵

Tokyo

Sagami Bay Subduction

—

M4–5 —

M5–6 —

M6–7 —

M7+ —

1923 Great Kanto earthquake — 100+ years of accumulation and Philippine Sea Plate dynamics

🇺🇸

San Francisco

San Andreas & Hayward Fault

—

M4–5 —

M5–6 —

M6–7 —

M7+ —

1906 San Francisco earthquake — continuous accumulation at ~34 mm/yr slip rate

🇨🇱

Santiago

Nazca–S.America Subduction

—

M4–5 —

M5–6 —

M6–7 —

M7+ —

1960 M9.5 Valdivia — the largest recorded earthquake on Earth occurred here

🇮🇩

Jakarta

Sunda Megathrust

—

M4–5 —

M5–6 —

M6–7 —

M7+ —

Indian Ocean subduction zone — world-leading M7+ frequency

🇬🇷

Atina

Aegean Graben System

—

M4–5 —

M5–6 —

M6–7 —

M7+ —

Corinth Gulf normal faults — Aegean extensional regime, shallow focal depths

🇮🇷

Tahran

Alborz & Zagros Belts

—

M4–5 —

M5–6 —

M6–7 —

M7+ —

1990 Rudbar M7.4 — densely populated basin in close proximity to active faults

🇵🇭

Mindanao

Philippine Fault & Cotabato Trench

—

M4–5 —

M5–6 —

M6–7 —

M7+ —

2026 M7.8 Mindanao — one of the most active seismic belts on Earth

🇯🇵

Tohoku

Japan Trench Megathrust

—

M4–5 —

M5–6 —

M6–7 —

M7+ —

2011 M9.1 Tohoku-oki — Pacific Plate subduction, tsunami-generating megathrust

🇻🇪

Venezuela

El Pilar–Boconó Fault

—

M4–5 —

M5–6 —

M6–7 —

M7+ —

2026 M7.5 Yumare — Caribbean–S.America right-lateral boundary, Venezuela's largest in a century

🇮🇩

Sulawesi

Palu-Koro Fault

—

M4–5 —

M5–6 —

M6–7 —

M7+ —

2018 M7.5 Palu — fast strike-slip (~40 mm/yr) with tsunami and liquefaction

🇷🇺

Kamçatka

Kamchatka–Kuril Megathrust

—

M4–5 —

M5–6 —

M6–7 —

M7+ —

1952 M9.0 Kamchatka — one of the most productive subduction zones worldwide

🌍

Cascadia

—

M4–5 —

M5–6 —

M6–7 —

M7+ —

—

🌍

Nepal

—

M4–5 —

M5–6 —

M6–7 —

M7+ —

—

🌍

San Andreas South

—

M4–5 —

M5–6 —

M6–7 —

M7+ —

—

🌍

Zagros Thrust Belt

—

M4–5 —

M5–6 —

M6–7 —

M7+ —

—

🌍

NZ Alpine Fault

—

M4–5 —

M5–6 —

M6–7 —

M7+ —

—

🌍

Northern

—

M4–5 —

M5–6 —

M6–7 —

M7+ —

—

🌍

PNG New Britain

—

M4–5 —

M5–6 —

M6–7 —

M7+ —

—

🌍

Tonga

—

M4–5 —

M5–6 —

M6–7 —

M7+ —

—

🌍

Vanuatu

—

M4–5 —

M5–6 —

M6–7 —

M7+ —

—

🌍

Kermadec

—

M4–5 —

M5–6 —

M6–7 —

M7+ —

—

🌍

Kuril Islands

—

M4–5 —

M5–6 —

M6–7 —

M7+ —

—

🌍

Loyalty

—

M4–5 —

M5–6 —

M6–7 —

M7+ —

—

🌍

Molucca

—

M4–5 —

M5–6 —

M6–7 —

M7+ —

—

🌍

Central Chile

—

M4–5 —

M5–6 —

M6–7 —

M7+ —

—

🌍

Banda Sea

—

M4–5 —

M5–6 —

M6–7 —

M7+ —

—

🌍

Tonga North

—

M4–5 —

M5–6 —

M6–7 —

M7+ —

—

🌍

Santa Cruz Islands

—

M4–5 —

M5–6 —

M6–7 —

M7+ —

—

🌍

Chiapas

—

M4–5 —

M5–6 —

M6–7 —

M7+ —

—

🌍

PNG Huon

—

M4–5 —

M5–6 —

M6–7 —

M7+ —

—

🌍

Taiwan

—

M4–5 —

M5–6 —

M6–7 —

M7+ —

—

🌍

Western Aleutians

—

M4–5 —

M5–6 —

M6–7 —

M7+ —

—

🌍

South Sandwich

—

M4–5 —

M5–6 —

M6–7 —

M7+ —

—

🌍

Fiji deep

—

M4–5 —

M5–6 —

M6–7 —

M7+ —

—

🌍

Costa Rica

—

M4–5 —

M5–6 —

M6–7 —

M7+ —

—

🌍

Bonin

—

M4–5 —

M5–6 —

M6–7 —

M7+ —

—

🌍

Bougainville

—

M4–5 —

M5–6 —

M6–7 —

M7+ —

—

🌍

Atacama

—

M4–5 —

M5–6 —

M6–7 —

M7+ —

—

🌍

North Sumatra

—

M4–5 —

M5–6 —

M6–7 —

M7+ —

—

🌍

Flores Sea

—

M4–5 —

M5–6 —

M6–7 —

M7+ —

—

🌍

Mentawai

—

M4–5 —

M5–6 —

M6–7 —

M7+ —

—

🌍

Papua Birds Head

—

M4–5 —

M5–6 —

M6–7 —

M7+ —

—

🌍

Haida Gwaii

—

M4–5 —

M5–6 —

M6–7 —

M7+ —

—

🌍

Hindu Kush

—

M4–5 —

M5–6 —

M6–7 —

M7+ —

—

🌍

Guerrero

—

M4–5 —

M5–6 —

M6–7 —

M7+ —

—

🌍

Mariana

—

M4–5 —

M5–6 —

M6–7 —

M7+ —

—

🌍

South Peru

—

M4–5 —

M5–6 —

M6–7 —

M7+ —

—

🌍

Pacific

—

M4–5 —

M5–6 —

M6–7 —

M7+ —

—

🌍

Ryukyu

—

M4–5 —

M5–6 —

M6–7 —

M7+ —

—

🌍

North Kuril

—

M4–5 —

M5–6 —

M6–7 —

M7+ —

—

🌍

Papua

—

M4–5 —

M5–6 —

M6–7 —

M7+ —

—

🌍

Komandorski

—

M4–5 —

M5–6 —

M6–7 —

M7+ —

—

🌍

Sunda

—

M4–5 —

M5–6 —

M6–7 —

M7+ —

—

🌍

Colombia

—

M4–5 —

M5–6 —

M6–7 —

M7+ —

—

🌍

Luzon

—

M4–5 —

M5–6 —

M6–7 —

M7+ —

—

🌍

Eastern Aleutians

—

M4–5 —

M5–6 —

M6–7 —

M7+ —

—

🌍

South Chile

—

M4–5 —

M5–6 —

M6–7 —

M7+ —

—

🌍

Andaman

—

M4–5 —

M5–6 —

M6–7 —

M7+ —

—

🌍

Hellenic Arc

—

M4–5 —

M5–6 —

M6–7 —

M7+ —

—

🌍

Ecuador

—

M4–5 —

M5–6 —

M6–7 —

M7+ —

—

🌍

Jalisco

—

M4–5 —

M5–6 —

M6–7 —

M7+ —

—

🌍

Guam

—

M4–5 —

M5–6 —

M6–7 —

M7+ —

—

🌍

NZ North

—

M4–5 —

M5–6 —

M6–7 —

M7+ —

—

🌍

Balleny

—

M4–5 —

M5–6 —

M6–7 —

M7+ —

—

🌍

Java

—

M4–5 —

M5–6 —

M6–7 —

M7+ —

—

🌍

Atlantic

—

M4–5 —

M5–6 —

M6–7 —

M7+ —

—

🌍

Argentina deep

—

M4–5 —

M5–6 —

M6–7 —

M7+ —

—

🌍

Alaska Peninsula

—

M4–5 —

M5–6 —

M6–7 —

M7+ —

—

🌍

PNG West New Britain–Finisterre

—

M4–5 —

M5–6 —

M6–7 —

M7+ —

—

🌍

South Tonga Trench

—

M4–5 —

M5–6 —

M6–7 —

M7+ —

—

🌍

Solomon Islands

—

M4–5 —

M5–6 —

M6–7 —

M7+ —

—

🌍

North Chile — Iquique

—

M4–5 —

M5–6 —

M6–7 —

M7+ —

—

🌍

Fiji Deep — North

—

M4–5 —

M5–6 —

M6–7 —

M7+ —

—

🌍

Talaud–Sangihe

—

M4–5 —

M5–6 —

M6–7 —

M7+ —

—

🌍

Rat Islands (Aleutians)

—

M4–5 —

M5–6 —

M6–7 —

M7+ —

—

🌍

West Sumatra — Nias–Padang

—

M4–5 —

M5–6 —

M6–7 —

M7+ —

—

🌍

Fiji West

—

M4–5 —

M5–6 —

M6–7 —

M7+ —

—

🌍

Hokkaido — Kuril Trench

—

M4–5 —

M5–6 —

M6–7 —

M7+ —

—

🌍

West Java — Sunda Trench

—

M4–5 —

M5–6 —

M6–7 —

M7+ —

—

🌍

Peru–Brazil Deep

—

M4–5 —

M5–6 —

M6–7 —

M7+ —

—

🌍

South Vanuatu

—

M4–5 —

M5–6 —

M6–7 —

M7+ —

—

🌍

North Peru

—

M4–5 —

M5–6 —

M6–7 —

M7+ —

—

🌍

Kyushu — Hyuganada

—

M4–5 —

M5–6 —

M6–7 —

M7+ —

—

🌍

Puysegur — Auckland Islands

—

M4–5 —

M5–6 —

M6–7 —

M7+ —

—

🌍

Visayas — Philippine Trench

—

M4–5 —

M5–6 —

M6–7 —

M7+ —

—

🌍

Volcano Islands

—

M4–5 —

M5–6 —

M6–7 —

M7+ —

—

🌍

Panama — Burica & Fracture Zone

—

M4–5 —

M5–6 —

M6–7 —

M7+ —

—

🌍

West Banda Sea

—

M4–5 —

M5–6 —

M6–7 —

M7+ —

—

03Advanced Analysis

Zeynep Kaya·[TAL-703]plot seismicity vs recurrence matrix

Risk Matrix

X: Seismicity rate (relative) · Y: Years since last major earthquake · Size: Dominant band risk score

04Geological Context

Eren Bostan·[TAL-704]document tectonic regime groupings

Tectonic Context

Subduction Zone

Tokyo · Santiago · Jakarta

These regions, where oceanic crust dives beneath continental plates, produce the largest earthquakes on record. Stress accumulated over hundreds of years along the subduction zone is released in periodic megathrust ruptures. Tsunami hazard is high.

Strike-Slip

Istanbul · Maraş · Yedisu · San Francisco

In these systems where plates slide past each other, stress builds at a linear rate. Faults like the NAF and San Andreas can remain quiet for decades while preparing an M7+ earthquake; urban proximity multiplies damage risk.

Extensional / Graben

Izmir · Athens · Iran

Normal faults formed by crustal extension are widespread across the Aegean and the Iranian plateau. Shallow focal depths amplify local damage. The Zagros fold-and-thrust belt and the Corinth rift system are typical examples of this category.