Seismic Risk Analysis
Argentina deep
Select Region
-27.00°N, -63.00°E
R = 300 km
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—
— Argentina deep bölgesel fay/subdüksiyon sistemi.
Kayma hızı —; son büyük olay: —.
01Instant Risk Assessment
Talivio Engine·[TAL-401]render per-band ML risk cards
5 Magnitude Band Forecast
02Regional Model v2
Eren Bostan·[TAL-402]wire pretrained regional band models
Bölgeye Özel Band Tahminleri
Koordinata en yakın önceden eğitilmiş bölgesel model kullanılır.
Her band ayrı stratejiyle eğitilmiştir (zor negatifler, temporal validation).
03Physical Framework
Talivio Engine·[TAL-403]summarize seismic cycle metrics
Seismic Cycle Summary
Seismic Gap
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Son kırılmadan beri
Slip Deficit
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Birikmiş plastik deformasyon
Slip Rate
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Jeodezik GNSS ölçümü
Max. Moment
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Segment potansiyeli
b-Value Trend
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Model çıktısından
Dominant Band
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En yüksek risk skoru
04Spatial Connectivity Layer
Eren Bostan·[TAL-404]compute H3 spatial connectivity features
Spatial Connectivity Features (v8.0)
H3 hexagonal grid üzerinde K-ring komşuluk analizi. 90 günlük zaman penceresinde
bölgesel sismik korelasyonlar ve fay düzleştirme hesaplanır.
K1 Neighbor Rate
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Yakın hücre aktivitesi
K2 Neighbor Rate
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Geniş hücre aktivitesi
K1 Max Magnitude
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Yakın komşulardaki maks.
Activity Trend
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30g/90g oran (>1 = hızlanma)
Cluster Density
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Uzamsal kümelenme ölçüsü
Fault Smoothing
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Mesafe ağırlıklı fay riski
05Tidal & Lunar Cycle
Talivio Engine·[TAL-405]overlay celestial tidal stress window
Celestial Alignment Window
06Historical Seismic Activity
Eren Bostan·[TAL-406]chart historical magnitude frequency
Magnitude Band Catalog Distribution
Kaynak: USGS, AFAD, ISC Bulletin (1900–2026) — Argentina deep, R=300 km.
Değerler 100 yıllık normalize sıklığı temsil eder.
07Spatial Risk Distribution
Talivio Engine·[TAL-407]render spatial risk heatmap grid
Region Risk Heatmap
300 km yarıçap içinde 12×12 ızgara üzerinde ML risk skoru. Yeşil → düşük, sarı → orta, kırmızı → yüksek.
Detailed Risk Analysis Report
High-resolution grid, fault proximity scores, and 5-year probability forecasts.
Get Full Report
08Regional Geology
Eren Bostan·[TAL-408]list regional fault geology details
Fault System Details
| Fault system | Argentina deep bölgesel fay/subdüksiyon sistemi |
| Fault type | — |
| Slip rate | — |
| Last major event | — |
| Segment potential | — |
| Seismic Gap | — |
| Slip Deficit | — |
09ML Model Metrics
Talivio Engine·[TAL-409]surface per-band ROC-AUC scores
Band-Level ROC-AUC Accuracy
M3–4 (CalibratedFrozenEstimator)
1.000
M4–5 (CalibratedRandomForestClassifier)
0.860
M5–6 (CalibratedLGBMClassifier)
0.808
M6–7 (CalibratedFrozenEstimator)
0.827
M7+ (CalibratedRandomForestClassifier)
0.862
10Model Validation
Eren Bostan·[TAL-410]report walk-forward backtest accuracy
Backtest & Forecast Accuracy
Walk-forward backtest from 1990 to present — at every time slice the model is trained only on past data and tested on future events.
Prospective Forecast Accuracy
Every forecast is stored and verified against the USGS catalog when its window closes. Real performance — not retrospective.
11Prospective Validation
Talivio Engine·[TAL-411]list past forecast hit/miss outcomes
Past Forecasts (Last 60 Days)
Forecasts issued by the system and their outcomes. Each forecast window is automatically matched against the USGS catalog when it closes.
Forecasts are automatically saved and verified against the USGS catalog.