Seismic Risk Analysis

Athens & Central Greece

37.98°N, 23.73°E R = 200 km 27 Yıl Birikim (Atina M5.9) 0.3 Metre (Corinth Rift)

Corinth Rift, Attica fay sistemi. Ege germe rejimine tabi bölge. — Corinth Rift sistemi — Kuzey Attica ve Parnes-Pendeli fay kuşağı. Kayma hızı 10–15 mm/yr (açılma); son büyük olay: 1999 Atina M5.9.

Instant Risk Assessment
5 Magnitude Band Forecast
Regional Model v2
Bölgeye Özel Band Tahminleri

Koordinata en yakın önceden eğitilmiş bölgesel model kullanılır. Her band ayrı stratejiyle eğitilmiştir (zor negatifler, temporal validation).

Yükleniyor…
Physical Framework
Seismic Cycle Summary
Seismic Gap
27 Yıl Birikim (Atina M5.9)
Son kırılmadan beri
Slip Deficit
0.3 Metre (Corinth Rift)
Birikmiş plastik deformasyon
Slip Rate
10–15 mm/yr (açılma)
Jeodezik GNSS ölçümü
Max. Moment
M≥7.0
Segment potansiyeli
b-Value Trend
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Model çıktısından
Dominant Band
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En yüksek risk skoru
Tidal & Lunar Cycle
Celestial Alignment Window
Historical Seismic Activity
Magnitude Band Catalog Distribution

Kaynak: USGS, AFAD, ISC Bulletin (1900–2026) — Athens & Central Greece, R=200 km. Değerler 100 yıllık normalize sıklığı temsil eder.

Spatial Risk Distribution
Region Risk Heatmap

200 km yarıçap içinde 12×12 ızgara üzerinde ML risk skoru. Yeşil → düşük, sarı → orta, kırmızı → yüksek.

Detailed Risk Analysis Report
High-resolution grid, fault proximity scores, and 5-year probability forecasts.
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Regional Geology
Fault System Details
Fault systemCorinth Rift sistemi — Kuzey Attica ve Parnes-Pendeli fay kuşağı
Fault typeNormal (Ege rifti)
Slip rate10–15 mm/yr (açılma)
Last major event1999 Atina M5.9
Segment potentialM≥7.0
Seismic Gap27 Yıl Birikim (Atina M5.9)
Slip Deficit0.3 Metre (Corinth Rift)
ML Model Metrics
Band-Level ROC-AUC Accuracy
M3–4 —
M4–5 (RandomForestClassifier) 0.860
M5–6 (GradientBoostingClassifier) 0.955
M6–7 (GradientBoostingClassifier) 0.997
M7+ (ExtraTreesClassifier) 0.993
Model Validation
Backtest & Forecast Accuracy

Walk-forward backtest from 1990 to present — at every time slice the model is trained only on past data and tested on future events.

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Avg. ROC-AUC
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Brier Score
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ECE (Calibration)
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Test Windows
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Skill Score (Poisson)
Prospective Forecast Accuracy

Every forecast is stored and verified against the USGS catalog when its window closes. Real performance — not retrospective.

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Prospective Validation
Past Forecasts (Last 60 Days)

Forecasts issued by the system and their outcomes. Each forecast window is automatically matched against the USGS catalog when it closes.

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Forecasts are automatically saved and verified against the USGS catalog.