Seismic Risk Analysis

Athens & Central Greece

Select Region
37.98°N, 23.73°E R = 200 km 27 Yıl Birikim (Atina M5.9) 0.3 Metre (Corinth Rift)

Corinth Rift, Attica fay sistemi. Ege germe rejimine tabi bölge. — Corinth Rift sistemi — Kuzey Attica ve Parnes-Pendeli fay kuşağı. Kayma hızı 10–15 mm/yr (açılma); son büyük olay: 1999 Atina M5.9.

01Instant Risk Assessment
Talivio Engine·[TAL-401]render per-band ML risk cards

5 Magnitude Band Forecast

02Regional Model v2
Eren Bostan·[TAL-402]wire pretrained regional band models

Bölgeye Özel Band Tahminleri

Koordinata en yakın önceden eğitilmiş bölgesel model kullanılır. Her band ayrı stratejiyle eğitilmiştir (zor negatifler, temporal validation).

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03Physical Framework
Talivio Engine·[TAL-403]summarize seismic cycle metrics

Seismic Cycle Summary

Seismic Gap
27 Yıl Birikim (Atina M5.9)
Son kırılmadan beri
Slip Deficit
0.3 Metre (Corinth Rift)
Birikmiş plastik deformasyon
Slip Rate
10–15 mm/yr (açılma)
Jeodezik GNSS ölçümü
Max. Moment
M≥7.0
Segment potansiyeli
b-Value Trend
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Model çıktısından
Dominant Band
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En yüksek risk skoru
05Tidal & Lunar Cycle
Talivio Engine·[TAL-405]overlay celestial tidal stress window

Celestial Alignment Window

06Historical Seismic Activity
Eren Bostan·[TAL-406]chart historical magnitude frequency

Magnitude Band Catalog Distribution

Kaynak: USGS, AFAD, ISC Bulletin (1900–2026) — Athens & Central Greece, R=200 km. Değerler 100 yıllık normalize sıklığı temsil eder.

07Spatial Risk Distribution
Talivio Engine·[TAL-407]render spatial risk heatmap grid

Region Risk Heatmap

200 km yarıçap içinde 12×12 ızgara üzerinde ML risk skoru. Yeşil → düşük, sarı → orta, kırmızı → yüksek.

Detailed Risk Analysis Report
High-resolution grid, fault proximity scores, and 5-year probability forecasts.
Get Full Report
08Regional Geology
Eren Bostan·[TAL-408]list regional fault geology details

Fault System Details

Fault systemCorinth Rift sistemi — Kuzey Attica ve Parnes-Pendeli fay kuşağı
Fault typeNormal (Ege rifti)
Slip rate10–15 mm/yr (açılma)
Last major event1999 Atina M5.9
Segment potentialM≥7.0
Seismic Gap27 Yıl Birikim (Atina M5.9)
Slip Deficit0.3 Metre (Corinth Rift)
09ML Model Metrics
Talivio Engine·[TAL-409]surface per-band ROC-AUC scores

Band-Level ROC-AUC Accuracy

M3–4 (CalibratedFrozenEstimator) 1.000
M4–5 (CalibratedFrozenEstimator) 0.914
M5–6 (CalibratedFrozenEstimator) 0.843
M6–7 (CalibratedFrozenEstimator) 0.827
M7+ (CalibratedFrozenEstimator) 0.970
10Model Validation
Eren Bostan·[TAL-410]report walk-forward backtest accuracy

Backtest & Forecast Accuracy

Walk-forward backtest from 1990 to present — at every time slice the model is trained only on past data and tested on future events.

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Avg. ROC-AUC
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Brier Score
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ECE (Calibration)
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Test Windows
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Skill Score (Poisson)
Prospective Forecast Accuracy

Every forecast is stored and verified against the USGS catalog when its window closes. Real performance — not retrospective.

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11Prospective Validation
Talivio Engine·[TAL-411]list past forecast hit/miss outcomes

Past Forecasts (Last 60 Days)

Forecasts issued by the system and their outcomes. Each forecast window is automatically matched against the USGS catalog when it closes.

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Forecasts are automatically saved and verified against the USGS catalog.