Riesgo en Vivo · Monitoreo Activo

Panel Global de Riesgo Sísmico

Pronósticos de probabilidad IA en tiempo real para 10 regiones sísmicas — 5 bandas de magnitud, 102 características.

Istanbul 2030 Forecasts → All Forecasts →
10
Active Regions
Global seismic monitoring network
ML Model
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Earthquakes (7 Days)
M4.5+ USGS data
System Status
Checking...
Spatial View

Seismic Risk Map

Shows dominant band risk per region. Marker color reflects dominant band.

Regions

Region Risk Cards

Probability forecasts across 4 magnitude bands per region. Highest risk band highlighted.

🇹🇷
İstanbul
İstanbul & Marmara
M 4–5  
M 5–6  
M 6–7  
M 7+  
🇹🇷
Maraş
Kahramanmaraş & DAF
M 4–5  
M 5–6  
M 6–7  
M 7+  
🇹🇷
Yedisu
Yedisu (Bingöl-Erzincan)
M 4–5  
M 5–6  
M 6–7  
M 7+  
🇹🇷
İzmir
İzmir & Ege Bölgesi
M 4–5  
M 5–6  
M 6–7  
M 7+  
🇯🇵
Tokyo
Tokyo & Kanto Plain
M 4–5  
M 5–6  
M 6–7  
M 7+  
🇺🇸
San Francisco
San Francisco & Bay Area
M 4–5  
M 5–6  
M 6–7  
M 7+  
🇨🇱
Santiago
Santiago & Central Chile
M 4–5  
M 5–6  
M 6–7  
M 7+  
🇮🇩
Jakarta
Jakarta & Sunda Strait
M 4–5  
M 5–6  
M 6–7  
M 7+  
🇬🇷
Atina
Athens & Central Greece
M 4–5  
M 5–6  
M 6–7  
M 7+  
🇮🇷
Tahran
Tehran & Alborz Range
M 4–5  
M 5–6  
M 6–7  
M 7+  
ML Models

Active Band Models

Independent champion/challenger ML model per magnitude band.

M 4–5
4.0 ≤ M < 5.0
ROC-AUC
Training Samples
Last Trained
M 5–6
5.0 ≤ M < 6.0
ROC-AUC
Training Samples
Last Trained
M 6–7
6.0 ≤ M < 7.0
ROC-AUC
Training Samples
Last Trained
M 7+
M ≥ 7.0
ROC-AUC
Training Samples
Last Trained
Celestial Mechanics

Celestial Status

Tidal stress (PyEphem/VSOP87), lunar phase, and risk window for today.

🌑
Lunar Phase · km
Risk Window
Tidal Stress
Normalized (0–1)
Celestial Index
Composite risk
Nodal Factor
Orbital node amplification
Syzygy
Sun–Moon alignment
Spring Factor
Combined tidal amplitude
Distance Factor
Lunar proximity (0–1)
Composite Risk Score
Live Data

Recent USGS Catalog

M4.5+ earthquakes from the past 30 days (USGS source).

Magnitude Location Date (UTC) Depth Lat / Lon
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System

Pipeline Status

APScheduler tasks: USGS ingestion, GNSS update, model quality control, weekly retraining.

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