Name: San Francisco & Bay Area Seismic Risk Forecast
Creator: Talivio
Keywords: earthquake forecast, seismic risk, San Francisco & Bay Area

01Instant Risk Assessment

Talivio Engine·[TAL-401]render per-band ML risk cards

5 Magnitude Band Forecast

02Regional Model v2

Eren Bostan·[TAL-402]wire pretrained regional band models

Bölgeye Özel Band Tahminleri

Koordinata en yakın önceden eğitilmiş bölgesel model kullanılır. Her band ayrı stratejiyle eğitilmiştir (zor negatifler, temporal validation).

Yükleniyor…

03Physical Framework

Talivio Engine·[TAL-403]summarize seismic cycle metrics

Seismic Cycle Summary

Seismic Gap

120 Yıl Birikim (San Francisco Depremi)

Son kırılmadan beri

Slip Deficit

4.1 Metre (San Andreas ~34 mm/yr)

Birikmiş plastik deformasyon

Slip Rate

17–25 mm/yr

Jeodezik GNSS ölçümü

Max. Moment

M≥7.2

Segment potansiyeli

b-Value Trend

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Model çıktısından

Dominant Band

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En yüksek risk skoru

04Spatial Connectivity Layer

Eren Bostan·[TAL-404]compute H3 spatial connectivity features

Spatial Connectivity Features (v8.0)

H3 hexagonal grid üzerinde K-ring komşuluk analizi. 90 günlük zaman penceresinde bölgesel sismik korelasyonlar ve fay düzleştirme hesaplanır.

K1 Neighbor Rate

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Yakın hücre aktivitesi

K2 Neighbor Rate

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Geniş hücre aktivitesi

K1 Max Magnitude

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Yakın komşulardaki maks.

Activity Trend

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30g/90g oran (>1 = hızlanma)

Cluster Density

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Uzamsal kümelenme ölçüsü

Fault Smoothing

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Mesafe ağırlıklı fay riski

05Tidal & Lunar Cycle

Talivio Engine·[TAL-405]overlay celestial tidal stress window

Celestial Alignment Window

06Historical Seismic Activity

Eren Bostan·[TAL-406]chart historical magnitude frequency

Magnitude Band Catalog Distribution

Kaynak: USGS, AFAD, ISC Bulletin (1900–2026) — San Francisco & Bay Area, R=200 km. Değerler 100 yıllık normalize sıklığı temsil eder.

07Spatial Risk Distribution

Talivio Engine·[TAL-407]render spatial risk heatmap grid

Region Risk Heatmap

200 km yarıçap içinde 12×12 ızgara üzerinde ML risk skoru. Yeşil → düşük, sarı → orta, kırmızı → yüksek.

Detailed Risk Analysis Report

High-resolution grid, fault proximity scores, and 5-year probability forecasts.

Get Full Report

08Regional Geology

Eren Bostan·[TAL-408]list regional fault geology details

Fault System Details

Fault system	San Andreas Fay Sistemi — Hayward, Calaveras, Rogers Creek segmentleri
Fault type	Sağ-yanal doğrultu atımlı (transform)
Slip rate	17–25 mm/yr
Last major event	1989 Loma Prieta M6.9
Segment potential	M≥7.2
Seismic Gap	120 Yıl Birikim (San Francisco Depremi)
Slip Deficit	4.1 Metre (San Andreas ~34 mm/yr)

09ML Model Metrics

Talivio Engine·[TAL-409]surface per-band ROC-AUC scores

Band-Level ROC-AUC Accuracy

M3–4 (CalibratedFrozenEstimator) 1.000

M4–5 (CalibratedFrozenEstimator) 0.914

M5–6 (CalibratedFrozenEstimator) 0.843

M6–7 (CalibratedFrozenEstimator) 0.827

M7+ (CalibratedFrozenEstimator) 0.970

10Model Validation

Eren Bostan·[TAL-410]report walk-forward backtest accuracy

Backtest & Forecast Accuracy

Walk-forward backtest from 1990 to present — at every time slice the model is trained only on past data and tested on future events.

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Avg. ROC-AUC

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Brier Score

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ECE (Calibration)

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Test Windows

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Skill Score (Poisson)

Prospective Forecast Accuracy

Every forecast is stored and verified against the USGS catalog when its window closes. Real performance — not retrospective.

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11Prospective Validation

Talivio Engine·[TAL-411]list past forecast hit/miss outcomes

Past Forecasts (Last 60 Days)

Forecasts issued by the system and their outcomes. Each forecast window is automatically matched against the USGS catalog when it closes.

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Forecasts are automatically saved and verified against the USGS catalog.