Seismic Risk Analysis

Kamchatka–Kuril Subduction

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53.00°N, 159.50°E R = 350 km 74 Yıl Birikim (M9.0 Kamçatka) 5.9 Metre (Kamçatka ~80 mm/yr)

Pasifik Levhası dalma-batma — 1952 M9.0. Dünyanın en üretken megathrust kuşaklarından. — Kuzey Anadolu Fayı (KAF) — Marmara denizaltı segmenti (~140 km). Kayma hızı 22–25 mm/yr; son büyük olay: 1999 İzmit M7.6.

Instant Risk Assessment
5 Magnitude Band Forecast
Regional Model v2
Bölgeye Özel Band Tahminleri

Koordinata en yakın önceden eğitilmiş bölgesel model kullanılır. Her band ayrı stratejiyle eğitilmiştir (zor negatifler, temporal validation).

Yükleniyor…
Physical Framework
Seismic Cycle Summary
Seismic Gap
74 Yıl Birikim (M9.0 Kamçatka)
Son kırılmadan beri
Slip Deficit
5.9 Metre (Kamçatka ~80 mm/yr)
Birikmiş plastik deformasyon
Slip Rate
22–25 mm/yr
Jeodezik GNSS ölçümü
Max. Moment
M≥7.2
Segment potansiyeli
b-Value Trend
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Model çıktısından
Dominant Band
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En yüksek risk skoru
Tidal & Lunar Cycle
Celestial Alignment Window
Historical Seismic Activity
Magnitude Band Catalog Distribution

Kaynak: USGS, AFAD, ISC Bulletin (1900–2026) — Kamchatka–Kuril Subduction, R=350 km. Değerler 100 yıllık normalize sıklığı temsil eder.

Spatial Risk Distribution
Region Risk Heatmap

350 km yarıçap içinde 12×12 ızgara üzerinde ML risk skoru. Yeşil → düşük, sarı → orta, kırmızı → yüksek.

Detailed Risk Analysis Report
High-resolution grid, fault proximity scores, and 5-year probability forecasts.
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Regional Geology
Fault System Details
Fault systemKuzey Anadolu Fayı (KAF) — Marmara denizaltı segmenti (~140 km)
Fault typeSağ-yanal doğrultu atımlı
Slip rate22–25 mm/yr
Last major event1999 İzmit M7.6
Segment potentialM≥7.2
Seismic Gap74 Yıl Birikim (M9.0 Kamçatka)
Slip Deficit5.9 Metre (Kamçatka ~80 mm/yr)
ML Model Metrics
Band-Level ROC-AUC Accuracy
M3–4 (CalibratedFrozenEstimator) 1.000
M4–5 (CalibratedRandomForestClassifier) 0.860
M5–6 (CalibratedLGBMClassifier) 0.808
M6–7 (CalibratedGradientBoostingClassifier) 0.807
M7+ (CalibratedRandomForestClassifier) 0.862
Model Validation
Backtest & Forecast Accuracy

Walk-forward backtest from 1990 to present — at every time slice the model is trained only on past data and tested on future events.

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Avg. ROC-AUC
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Brier Score
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ECE (Calibration)
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Test Windows
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Skill Score (Poisson)
Prospective Forecast Accuracy

Every forecast is stored and verified against the USGS catalog when its window closes. Real performance — not retrospective.

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Prospective Validation
Past Forecasts (Last 60 Days)

Forecasts issued by the system and their outcomes. Each forecast window is automatically matched against the USGS catalog when it closes.

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Forecasts are automatically saved and verified against the USGS catalog.