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Model: Regional Band ML
Backtest AUC (M4-5): 0.619
Expanding-window: 11 yr
Base rate: GR-Poisson + ML
M5-6
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100%
ist.band_m56_label ist.probability
M6-7
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89.5%
ist.band_m67_label ist.probability
M7+
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43.7%
ist.band_m7p_label ist.probability
PROSPECTIVE FORECAST
Cumulative Risk 2026–2030
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2026
M5-6
93.9% 50.3%/Q
M6-7
36.2% 10.6%/Q
M7+
10.8% 2.8%/Q
2027
M5-6
99.6% 50.3%/Q
M6-7
59.3% 10.6%/Q
M7+
20.5% 2.8%/Q
2028
M5-6
100% 50.3%/Q
M6-7
74.1% 10.6%/Q
M7+
29.1% 2.8%/Q
2029
M5-6
100% 50.3%/Q
M6-7
83.5% 10.6%/Q
M7+
36.8% 2.8%/Q
2030
M5-6
100% 50.3%/Q
M6-7
89.5% 10.6%/Q
M7+
43.7% 2.8%/Q

Data source: Regional Band ML model (AUC=0.619, 11yr expanding-window backtest) × GR-Poisson base rates (KOERI/MTAS Marmara catalog 1900-2024). GR-Poisson base rates (ML quarterly forecasts not yet generated for this region). M6-7 / M7+ use GR-Poisson only (insufficient training events for band model).

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🔴
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📡
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🌊
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📊
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ist.table_period ist.table_band Q-Risk (GR+ML) ist.table_window Method
2026 M5-6 50.3% 2026-01-01 — 2026-12-31 GR-Poisson
2026 M6-7 10.6% 2026-01-01 — 2026-12-31 GR-Poisson
2026 M7+ 2.8% 2026-01-01 — 2026-12-31 GR-Poisson
2027 M5-6 50.3% 2027-01-01 — 2027-12-31 GR-Poisson
2027 M6-7 10.6% 2027-01-01 — 2027-12-31 GR-Poisson
2027 M7+ 2.8% 2027-01-01 — 2027-12-31 GR-Poisson
2028 M5-6 50.3% 2028-01-01 — 2028-12-31 GR-Poisson
2028 M6-7 10.6% 2028-01-01 — 2028-12-31 GR-Poisson
2028 M7+ 2.8% 2028-01-01 — 2028-12-31 GR-Poisson
2029 M5-6 50.3% 2029-01-01 — 2029-12-31 GR-Poisson
2029 M6-7 10.6% 2029-01-01 — 2029-12-31 GR-Poisson
2029 M7+ 2.8% 2029-01-01 — 2029-12-31 GR-Poisson
2030 M5-6 50.3% 2030-01-01 — 2030-12-31 GR-Poisson
2030 M6-7 10.6% 2030-01-01 — 2030-12-31 GR-Poisson
2030 M7+ 2.8% 2030-01-01 — 2030-12-31 GR-Poisson

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