We Don't Predict Earthquakes.
We Calculate Seismic Risk with Millimetric Precision.
Free weekly seismic risk forecasts for every active fault zone. Need the full picture for your exact address? Get a professional 5-page PDF report — fault analysis, 5-year probabilities, and AI risk scores across all magnitude bands — delivered to your inbox for €5.
Who Needs Seismic Intelligence?
Latest Regional Forecasts
Precision @ 0.7
Near-Zero False Positive Rate
Classic AI models cry wolf at every minor tremor, inflating their accuracy numbers. Talivio works differently. Our system is deliberately under-confident — it never triggers an alert when the evidence is uncertain.
Say goodbye to false alarms. Know only the moments that truly require action.
Beyond Classical ML and State-of-the-Art
| Feature / Metric | Traditional Institutions (USGS) | Classical Academic AI | Talivio (Regional ML) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Core Logic | Pure Statistics (only knows aftershocks) | Black-box Classification (memorises) | Physics-Informed AI (Spatial/Temporal) |
| Spatial Resolution | 10–50 km (very broad) | Province or region level | H3 Res 8/9 (0.7 km² pinpoint) |
| Time Horizon | Usually 24 hours | Single & uncertain | 7, 30 & 90-day dynamic probabilities |
| False Positive | Medium | Very high (up to 80% false alarms) | Near-zero ([email protected] = 91%) |
| Probability Calibration (ECE) | None | Usually not measured | 0.032 (excellent calibration) |
| Brier Skill Score (BSS) | 1.5–3% (reference) | Negative (worse than random) | 23.9% (far above industry standard) |
World Earthquake Prediction Benchmark Ranking
Talivio's performance compared to published earthquake forecasting systems worldwide. Our AUC values use hard same-region negatives — the most rigorous evaluation protocol.
| System | Metric | Value | ASS† | Window | Negatives | Validation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ETAS Italy (OEF-Italy) | Area Skill Score | 0.7 | 0.700 | 1-day | same_region | Prospective |
| RELM California (CSEP) | Probability Gain vs Random | 10 | — | 5-year | same_region | Prospective |
| CSEP California (2011–2020) | IGPE vs Benchmark | 0 | — | 5-year | same_region | Prospective |
| FCN Deep Learning (California) | Area Skill Score | 0.882 | 0.882 | 15–90 day | same_region | Retrospective |
| DeVries 2018 (Google Brain) | AUC | 0.849 | — | static | global_mixed | Retrospective |
| ETAS Japan (CSEP daily) | CSEP Pass Rate | 0.9 | — | 1-day | same_region | Prospective |
| EEPAS New Zealand | IGPE | 0.64 | — | 3-month | same_region | Prospective |
| Talivio v2 | AUC + ASS (Molchan) | 0.619–0.994 | 0.150 | 30-day | Hard same-region | Retrospective + Prospective |
† ASS = Area Skill Score (Molchan, [0,1]). FCN=0.882, ETAS Italy=0.70 (published).
8 regions, 127 backtest years. Full methodology →
How It Works
25 Years of Uninterrupted Validation
Our system has been tested with Walk-forward Validation and a 30-day purge gap protocol to prevent data memorisation.
Location-Specific ML Models
Each region trains its own ML model. Negative samples are drawn from the same tectonic zone — producing honest AUC values (0.62–0.99 range) with no geographic bias.
Amber band = trained model exists · AUC = expanding-window backtest result (hard same-region negatives)
Seismic Intelligence
Latest from the Blog
Deep dives into earthquake science, AI forecasting models, and seismic risk analysis.
Coulomb Stress Transfer: The Seismic Force Driving Talivio AI's Predictions
Understanding how stress redistributes after an earthquake is fundamental to predicting future seismic events. Talivio AI leverages sophisticated Coulomb stress transfer models to precisely map these changes, significantly enhancing our multi-band machine learning algorithms for more accurate earthquake forecasts.
Decoding the M5.8 Kermadec Islands Earthquake: Talivio AI's Analysis
A recent M5.8 earthquake near the Kermadec Islands offers critical insights into the complex dynamics of this active subduction zone. Talivio AI analyzes this event using its advanced machine learning models and 102 seismic features, refining our understanding of regional stress patterns and enhancing earthquake forecasting capabilities.
The Yedisu Seismic Gap: Talivio AI's Data-Driven Focus on a Critical North Anatolian Fault Segment
The Yedisu Seismic Gap on the North Anatolian Fault presents a significant, evolving seismic hazard. Talivio AI employs advanced machine learning models and diverse seismic features, from GNSS strain to b-value anomalies, to continuously assess and forecast the potential for a major earthquake in this critical region, moving beyond speculation to data-driven insights.
Your Report: 5-Page Professional PDF
Frequently asked questions
Is this a guaranteed earthquake prediction?
Where does the data come from?
How is accuracy measured?
What does a risk report include?
Which regions are covered?
Location Reports
Street-Level Seismic Intelligence
One complete seismic risk analysis for your exact location — 5 magnitude bands, 5 time horizons, fault map, and historical catalog.
Get Your Report — €5This system provides statistical probability forecasts. Earthquake time, location and magnitude cannot be precisely predicted scientifically. Probabilities are based on historical patterns and physical models; they do not imply certainty.